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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: Lansdown 1 v Avon West / Centre For Sport - K1 (Wed 22 Feb 2023)Match played between Antoine Riehl (home) and Mateusz Marcinkowski (away).Match won by Antoine Riehl. Result: 11-3,11-6,8-11,11-2. Starting level for Antoine Riehl: 10,671, level confidence: 63%. Starting level for Mateusz Marcinkowski: 7,869, level confidence: 78%. Set manually. Antoine Riehl to win as he is currently playing 36% better than Mateusz Marcinkowski. Antoine Riehl won 75% of the games and 65% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 86% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Antoine Riehl played 45% better than Mateusz Marcinkowski in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Antoine Riehl actually played at a level of 11,044 and Mateusz Marcinkowski at a level of 7,603. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 3.5% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 3% and 3% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Antoine Riehl changes to +3% and Mateusz Marcinkowski changes to -2.4%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Antoine Riehl becomes +1.5% and for Mateusz Marcinkowski becomes -1.3%. Given Antoine Riehl's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 19% has been applied to his level change. Given Mateusz Marcinkowski's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 10.8% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2022/2023' so the adjustment for Antoine Riehl is +0.9% and for Mateusz Marcinkowski is -0.8%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Antoine Riehl: 79%, Mateusz Marcinkowski: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Antoine Riehl: 77%, Mateusz Marcinkowski: 86%. A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Antoine Riehl: 10,753, level confidence: 77%. Final level for Mateusz Marcinkowski: 7,791, level confidence: 86%. Notes
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