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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: Avon West / Centre For Sport - K1 v Lansdown 1 (Wed 03 May 2023)Match played between Ameeshenraj Chandaran (home) and Mark Radley (away).Match won by Ameeshenraj Chandaran. Result: 11-2,11-7,6-11,11-3:11-8,4-11,6-11,2-11:11-9,2-11,11-7,11-4:11-9,9-11,5-11,11-9,6-11:12-10,3-11,13-15,10-12. Starting level for Ameeshenraj Chandaran: 25,204, level confidence: 69%. Starting level for Mark Radley: 13,977, level confidence: 68%. Ameeshenraj Chandaran to win as he is currently playing 80% better than Mark Radley. Ameeshenraj Chandaran won 75% of the games and 63% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 70% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ameeshenraj Chandaran played 40% better than Mark Radley in this match. As Ameeshenraj Chandaran has played below his allowed range at 19,901, his level reduction is 1.9% before damping. On the assumption that Ameeshenraj Chandaran would normally have been playing at level 22,884 (based on typical behaviour), Mark Radley played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 8.3%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 1.4% and 6.1% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ameeshenraj Chandaran changes to -1.4% and Mark Radley changes to +6.1%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ameeshenraj Chandaran becomes -0.6% and for Mark Radley becomes +2.1%. Given Ameeshenraj Chandaran's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 48% has been applied to his level change. Given Mark Radley's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 27% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2022/2023' so the adjustment for Ameeshenraj Chandaran is 0% and for Mark Radley is +1.2%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ameeshenraj Chandaran: 83%, Mark Radley: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ameeshenraj Chandaran: 73%, Mark Radley: 73%. A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Ameeshenraj Chandaran: 25,093, level confidence: 73%. Final level for Mark Radley: 14,128, level confidence: 73%. Notes
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