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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: Lansdown 1 v Workout Harbourside 1 (Wed 19 Apr 2023)Match played between Mark Radley (home) and Andy Lowe (away).Match won by Mark Radley. Result: 11-5,11-4,11-3. Starting level for Mark Radley: 13,038, level confidence: 81%. Set manually. Starting level for Andy Lowe: 7,003, level confidence: 65%. Mark Radley to win as he is currently playing 86% better than Andy Lowe. Mark Radley won all of the games and 73% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 175% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mark Radley played 175% better than Andy Lowe in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mark Radley actually played at a level of 15,846 and Andy Lowe at a level of 5,762. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 22% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 15% and 15% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mark Radley changes to +12% and Andy Lowe changes to -15%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mark Radley becomes +3.5% and for Andy Lowe becomes -4.8%. Given Mark Radley's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 25% has been applied to his level change. Given Andy Lowe's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 7.8% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2022/2023' so the adjustment for Mark Radley is +2.1% and for Andy Lowe is -3.3%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mark Radley: 90%, Andy Lowe: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mark Radley: 74%, Andy Lowe: 66%. A final adjustment of +2.6% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Mark Radley: 13,977, level confidence: 74%. Final level for Andy Lowe: 6,797, level confidence: 66%. Notes
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