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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: Workout Harbourside 1 v Redland B (Wed 01 Mar 2023)Match played between Jack Alcock (home) and Harry Anderson (away).Match won by Harry Anderson. Result: 11-8,8-11,7-11,3-11:3-11,11-3,11-4,8-11,11-8:12-10,11-8,13-11:8-11,11-3,11-5,4-11,11-9:11-3,7-11,11-3,11-6. Starting level for Jack Alcock: 10,161, level confidence: 55%. Starting level for Harry Anderson: 13,023, level confidence: 47%. Harry Anderson to win as he is currently playing 28% better than Jack Alcock. Harry Anderson won 75% of the games and 59% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 41% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Harry Anderson played 30% better than Jack Alcock in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Harry Anderson actually played at a level of 13,136 and Jack Alcock at a level of 10,073. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 0.9% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0.8% and 0.8% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Harry Anderson changes to +0.8% and Jack Alcock changes to -0.7%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Harry Anderson becomes +0.4% and for Jack Alcock becomes -0.3%. Given Harry Anderson's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 25% has been applied to his level change. Given Jack Alcock's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 18% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2022/2023' so the adjustment for Harry Anderson is 0% and for Jack Alcock is 0%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Harry Anderson: 69%, Jack Alcock: 74%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Harry Anderson: 68%, Jack Alcock: 74%. A final adjustment of -4.4% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Jack Alcock: 10,036, level confidence: 74%. Final level for Harry Anderson: 12,090, level confidence: 68%. Notes
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