|
Menu
Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: Rhiwbina v Avon West / Centre For Sport - K1 (Wed 26 Apr 2023)Match played between James Peach (home) and Ameeshenraj Chandaran (away).Match won by Ameeshenraj Chandaran. Result: 6-11,9-11,8-11:11-6,11-6,11-8:5-11,8-11,11-4,8-11:8-11,4-11,11-13:11-9,11-4,11-7. Starting level for James Peach: 27,941, level confidence: 47%. Starting level for Ameeshenraj Chandaran: 24,454, level confidence: 71%. Set manually. James Peach to win as he is currently playing 14% better than Ameeshenraj Chandaran. Ameeshenraj Chandaran won all of the games and 59% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 43% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ameeshenraj Chandaran played 47% better than James Peach in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Ameeshenraj Chandaran actually played at a level of 31,723 and James Peach at a level of 21,539. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 30% to match this result. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ameeshenraj Chandaran changes to +18% and James Peach changes to -28%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ameeshenraj Chandaran becomes +4.2% and for James Peach becomes -5.8%. Given Ameeshenraj Chandaran's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 47% has been applied to his level change. Given James Peach's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 52% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously... Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2022/2023' so the adjustment for Ameeshenraj Chandaran is +2.1% and for James Peach is -2.8%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ameeshenraj Chandaran: 84%, James Peach: 68%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ameeshenraj Chandaran: 65%, James Peach: 53%. A final adjustment of +0.6% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for James Peach: 27,280, level confidence: 53%. Final level for Ameeshenraj Chandaran: 25,204, level confidence: 65%. Notes
|