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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 2: University of Bristol Sharks v University of Bath 3 (Thu 16 Mar 2023)Match played between Nat 'Clownfish' Echlin (home) and Ben Shaw (away).Match won by Nat 'Clownfish' Echlin. Result: 15-11,7-15,15-6,15-12. Starting level for Nat 'Clownfish' Echlin: 813, level confidence: 70%. Starting level for Ben Shaw: 1,095, level confidence: 24%. Ben Shaw to win as he is currently playing 35% better than Nat 'Clownfish' Echlin. Nat 'Clownfish' Echlin won 75% of the games and 54% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 18% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Nat 'Clownfish' Echlin played 23% better than Ben Shaw in this match. An upset! Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Nat 'Clownfish' Echlin actually played at a level of 1,045 and Ben Shaw at a level of 852. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 29% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 24% and 24% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Nat 'Clownfish' Echlin changes to +8.3% and Ben Shaw changes to -24%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Nat 'Clownfish' Echlin becomes +5.6% and for Ben Shaw becomes -13%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2022/2023' so the adjustment for Nat 'Clownfish' Echlin is +4.2% and for Ben Shaw is -9.2%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Ben Shaw is limited to -6.1% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Nat 'Clownfish' Echlin: 84%, Ben Shaw: 49%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Nat 'Clownfish' Echlin: 65%, Ben Shaw: 38%. A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Nat 'Clownfish' Echlin: 846, level confidence: 65%. Final level for Ben Shaw: 1,030, level confidence: 38%. Notes
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