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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier C: Lansdown 2 v Avon West / Bristol Wanderers - K2 (Wed 03 May 2023)Match played between Charlie Galton (home) and Mark Simmons (away).Match won by Charlie Galton. Result: 11-4,11-3,11-9. Starting level for Charlie Galton: 2,774, level confidence: 77%. Set manually. Starting level for Mark Simmons: 2,187, level confidence: 73%. Set manually. Charlie Galton to win as he is currently playing 27% better than Mark Simmons. Charlie Galton won all of the games and 67% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 106% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Charlie Galton played 106% better than Mark Simmons in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Charlie Galton actually played at a level of 3,537 and Mark Simmons at a level of 1,715. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 28% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 24% and 24% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Charlie Galton changes to +23% and Mark Simmons changes to -24%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Charlie Galton becomes +8.5% and for Mark Simmons becomes -9.6%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2022/2023' so the adjustment for Charlie Galton is +6.4% and for Mark Simmons is -7.1%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Mark Simmons is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Charlie Galton: 88%, Mark Simmons: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Charlie Galton: 69%, Mark Simmons: 67%. A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Charlie Galton: 2,947, level confidence: 69%. Final level for Mark Simmons: 2,080, level confidence: 67%. Notes
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