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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier C: Avon West / Bristol Wanderers - K2 v University of Bristol Chiefs (Thu 23 Mar 2023)Match played between Jake West (home) and Gabriel 'No Let' Bowen (away).Match won by Jake West. Result: 11-6,11-5,11-4:8-11,11-5,11-5,11-6:6-11,12-10,5-11,11-6,10-12:11-5,14-12,11-4:11-1,11-9,11-9. Starting level for Jake West: 2,780, level confidence: 80%. Set manually. Starting level for Gabriel 'No Let' Bowen: 3,258, level confidence: 72%. Set manually. Gabriel 'No Let' Bowen to win as he is currently playing 17% better than Jake West. Jake West won all of the games and 69% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 120% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Jake West played 120% better than Gabriel 'No Let' Bowen in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Jake West actually played at a level of 4,464 and Gabriel 'No Let' Bowen at a level of 2,029. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 61% to match this result. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Jake West changes to +50% and Gabriel 'No Let' Bowen changes to -55%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Jake West becomes +16.2% and for Gabriel 'No Let' Bowen becomes -17%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2022/2023' so the adjustment for Jake West is +12% and for Gabriel 'No Let' Bowen is -12%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Jake West is limited to +10% and Gabriel 'No Let' Bowen is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Jake West: 89%, Gabriel 'No Let' Bowen: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Jake West: 56%, Gabriel 'No Let' Bowen: 53%. A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Jake West: 3,053, level confidence: 56%. Final level for Gabriel 'No Let' Bowen: 3,098, level confidence: 53%. Notes
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