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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier C: University of Bristol Chiefs v Avon West / Centre For Sport - K1 (Thu 09 Feb 2023)Match played between Ben 'Burger' Knight (home) and Jain Tanishka (away).Match won by Jain Tanishka. Result: 4-11,10-12,12-14:11-7,11-7,11-7:11-7,6-11,11-9,8-11,8-11:8-11,9-11,1-11:3-11,11-7,9-11,11-9,3-11. Starting level for Ben 'Burger' Knight: 3,033, level confidence: 77%. Set manually. Starting level for Jain Tanishka: 4,167, level confidence: 66%. Jain Tanishka to win as she is currently playing 37% better than Ben 'Burger' Knight. Jain Tanishka won all of the games and 59% of the points. This games result would be expected if she was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if she was better by around 42% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Jain Tanishka played 46% better than Ben 'Burger' Knight in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Jain Tanishka actually played at a level of 4,303 and Ben 'Burger' Knight at a level of 2,937. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 3.3% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 2.8% and 2.8% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Jain Tanishka changes to +2.8% and Ben 'Burger' Knight changes to -2.4%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Jain Tanishka becomes +1.7% and for Ben 'Burger' Knight becomes -1.6%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2022/2023' so the adjustment for Jain Tanishka is +1.3% and for Ben 'Burger' Knight is -1.2%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Jain Tanishka: 81%, Ben 'Burger' Knight: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Jain Tanishka: 79%, Ben 'Burger' Knight: 85%. A final adjustment of -0.9% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Ben 'Burger' Knight: 2,981, level confidence: 85%. Final level for Jain Tanishka: 4,164, level confidence: 79%. Notes
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