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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier C: University of Bristol Chiefs v Avon West / Centre For Sport - K1 (Thu 09 Feb 2023)Match played between Gabriel 'No Let' Bowen (home) and Pehvendran Ravi (away).Match won by Gabriel 'No Let' Bowen. Result: 11-7,11-7,11-7. Starting level for Gabriel 'No Let' Bowen: 2,982, level confidence: 83%. Set manually. Starting level for Pehvendran Ravi: 2,809, level confidence: 57%. Gabriel 'No Let' Bowen to win as he is currently playing 6% better than Pehvendran Ravi. Gabriel 'No Let' Bowen won all of the games and 61% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 57% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Gabriel 'No Let' Bowen played 56% better than Pehvendran Ravi in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Gabriel 'No Let' Bowen actually played at a level of 3,620 and Pehvendran Ravi at a level of 2,314. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 21% to match this result. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Gabriel 'No Let' Bowen changes to +14% and Pehvendran Ravi changes to -21%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Gabriel 'No Let' Bowen becomes +5.6% and for Pehvendran Ravi becomes -7.8%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2022/2023' so the adjustment for Gabriel 'No Let' Bowen is +4.2% and for Pehvendran Ravi is -5.8%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Pehvendran Ravi is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Gabriel 'No Let' Bowen: 91%, Pehvendran Ravi: 75%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Gabriel 'No Let' Bowen: 75%, Pehvendran Ravi: 62%. A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Gabriel 'No Let' Bowen: 3,103, level confidence: 75%. Final level for Pehvendran Ravi: 2,671, level confidence: 62%. Notes
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