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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier C: University of Bristol Chiefs v Avon West / Centre For Sport - K1 (Thu 09 Feb 2023)Match played between Augustus 'Dookie' Harper (home) and Will Greenlees (away).Match won by Will Greenlees. Result: 11-7,6-11,11-9,8-11,8-11. Starting level for Augustus 'Dookie' Harper: 1,737, level confidence: 84%. Set manually. Starting level for Will Greenlees: 2,334, level confidence: 70%. Set manually. Will Greenlees to win as he is currently playing 34% better than Augustus 'Dookie' Harper. Will Greenlees won 60% of the games and 53% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 11% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Will Greenlees played 10% better than Augustus 'Dookie' Harper in this match. As Will Greenlees has played below his allowed range at 2,049, his level reduction is 6.9% before damping. On the assumption that Will Greenlees would normally have been playing at level 2,269 (based on typical behaviour), Augustus 'Dookie' Harper played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 8.8%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 5.9% and 7.6% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Will Greenlees changes to -5.9% and Augustus 'Dookie' Harper changes to +6.3%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Will Greenlees becomes -3.3% and for Augustus 'Dookie' Harper becomes +3.7%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2022/2023' so the adjustment for Will Greenlees is -2.4% and for Augustus 'Dookie' Harper is +2.8%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Will Greenlees: 84%, Augustus 'Dookie' Harper: 92%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Will Greenlees: 76%, Augustus 'Dookie' Harper: 83%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Augustus 'Dookie' Harper: 1,783, level confidence: 83%. Final level for Will Greenlees: 2,275, level confidence: 76%. Notes
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