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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier C: University of Bristol Chiefs v Workout Harbourside 2 (Tue 02 May 2023)Match played between Augustus 'Dookie' Harper (home) and Hannah McGugan (away).Match won by Hannah McGugan. Result: 9-11,8-11,7-11. Starting level for Augustus 'Dookie' Harper: 1,812, level confidence: 60%. Starting level for Hannah McGugan: 2,936, level confidence: 71%. Set manually. Hannah McGugan to win as she is currently playing 62% better than Augustus 'Dookie' Harper. Hannah McGugan won all of the games and 58% of the points. This games result would be expected if she was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if she was better by around 38% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Hannah McGugan played 43% better than Augustus 'Dookie' Harper in this match. In this case, Hannah McGugan played at level 2,670 and remained within her allowed range so her level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Hannah McGugan would normally have been playing at level 2,745 (based on typical behaviour), Augustus 'Dookie' Harper played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 2.8%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 2.2% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Hannah McGugan changes to 0% and Augustus 'Dookie' Harper changes to +2.2%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Hannah McGugan becomes 0% and for Augustus 'Dookie' Harper becomes +1.8%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2022/2023' so the adjustment for Hannah McGugan is 0% and for Augustus 'Dookie' Harper is +1.3%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Hannah McGugan: 84%, Augustus 'Dookie' Harper: 78%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Hannah McGugan: 79%, Augustus 'Dookie' Harper: 73%. A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Augustus 'Dookie' Harper: 1,833, level confidence: 73%. Final level for Hannah McGugan: 2,932, level confidence: 79%. Notes
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