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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier B: University of Bath 2 v University of Bristol Ballers (Wed 15 Feb 2023)Match played between Alex Pooley (home) and Ethan 'Bunny' Chak (away).Match won by Ethan 'Bunny' Chak. Result: 10-12,4-11,3-11. Starting level for Alex Pooley: 3,358, level confidence: 57%. Starting level for Ethan 'Bunny' Chak: 5,561, level confidence: 50%. Ethan 'Bunny' Chak to win as he is currently playing 66% better than Alex Pooley. Ethan 'Bunny' Chak won all of the games and 67% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 100% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ethan 'Bunny' Chak played 100% better than Alex Pooley in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Ethan 'Bunny' Chak actually played at a level of 6,111 and Alex Pooley at a level of 3,056. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 9.9% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 7.6% and 7.6% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ethan 'Bunny' Chak changes to +7.6% and Alex Pooley changes to -6.5%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ethan 'Bunny' Chak becomes +3% and for Alex Pooley becomes -3.1%. Given Ethan 'Bunny' Chak's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 2.4% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2022/2023' so the adjustment for Ethan 'Bunny' Chak is +2.2% and for Alex Pooley is -2.3%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ethan 'Bunny' Chak: 70%, Alex Pooley: 76%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ethan 'Bunny' Chak: 64%, Alex Pooley: 69%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Alex Pooley: 3,277, level confidence: 69%. Final level for Ethan 'Bunny' Chak: 5,674, level confidence: 64%. Notes
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