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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier B: Westbury David Lloyd A v University of Bristol Ballers (Thu 23 Feb 2023)Match played between Richard Dodsworth (home) and Fin 'Huggies' McManus (away).Match won by Fin 'Huggies' McManus. Result: 5-11,5-11,7-11:6-11,3-11,6-11:7-11,14-12,11-8,9-11,11-8:11-7,9-11,6-11,3-11:11-5,11-13,13-11,11-6. Starting level for Richard Dodsworth: 3,418, level confidence: 70%. Starting level for Fin 'Huggies' McManus: 6,216, level confidence: 79%. Set manually. Fin 'Huggies' McManus to win as he is currently playing 82% better than Richard Dodsworth. Fin 'Huggies' McManus won all of the games and 66% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 94% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Fin 'Huggies' McManus played 94% better than Richard Dodsworth in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Fin 'Huggies' McManus actually played at a level of 6,422 and Richard Dodsworth at a level of 3,308. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 3.3% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 2.4% and 2.4% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Fin 'Huggies' McManus changes to +2.1% and Richard Dodsworth changes to -2.4%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Fin 'Huggies' McManus becomes +1.2% and for Richard Dodsworth becomes -1.6%. Given Fin 'Huggies' McManus's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 5% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2022/2023' so the adjustment for Fin 'Huggies' McManus is +0.8% and for Richard Dodsworth is -1.2%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Fin 'Huggies' McManus: 89%, Richard Dodsworth: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Fin 'Huggies' McManus: 86%, Richard Dodsworth: 81%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Richard Dodsworth: 3,373, level confidence: 81%. Final level for Fin 'Huggies' McManus: 6,259, level confidence: 86%. Notes
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