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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier B: University of Bristol Ballers v Westbury David Lloyd A (Thu 02 Feb 2023)Match played between Ethan 'Bunny' Chak (home) and Asad Choudry (away).Match won by Ethan 'Bunny' Chak. Result: 11-5,11-4,11-3. Starting level for Ethan 'Bunny' Chak: 5,361, level confidence: 55%. Starting level for Asad Choudry: 3,078, level confidence: 76%. Set manually. Ethan 'Bunny' Chak to win as he is currently playing 74% better than Asad Choudry. Ethan 'Bunny' Chak won all of the games and 73% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 175% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ethan 'Bunny' Chak played 175% better than Asad Choudry in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Ethan 'Bunny' Chak actually played at a level of 6,736 and Asad Choudry at a level of 2,450. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 26% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 19% and 19% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ethan 'Bunny' Chak changes to +19% and Asad Choudry changes to -13%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ethan 'Bunny' Chak becomes +6% and for Asad Choudry becomes -5.3%. Given Ethan 'Bunny' Chak's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 1.6% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2022/2023' so the adjustment for Ethan 'Bunny' Chak is +4.4% and for Asad Choudry is -3.9%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ethan 'Bunny' Chak: 74%, Asad Choudry: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ethan 'Bunny' Chak: 59%, Asad Choudry: 69%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Ethan 'Bunny' Chak: 5,561, level confidence: 59%. Final level for Asad Choudry: 2,977, level confidence: 69%. Notes
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