|
Menu
Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 4: Whitchurch Imperial A v Kingswood Originals (Wed 01 Feb 2023)Match played between Henry 'Hitman' Walker (home) and Jordan Milbourne (away).Match won by Jordan Milbourne. Result: 13-15,14-16,11-15:15-11,11-15,11-15,15-7,15-5:15-10,15-10,15-7,15-15:15-13,15-8,15-11:15-6,15-8,18-16. Starting level for Henry 'Hitman' Walker: 1,402, level confidence: 60%. Starting level for Jordan Milbourne: 2,012, level confidence: 58%. Jordan Milbourne to win as he is currently playing 44% better than Henry 'Hitman' Walker. Jordan Milbourne won all of the games and 55% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 21% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Jordan Milbourne played 32% better than Henry 'Hitman' Walker in this match. In this case, Jordan Milbourne played at level 1,893 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Jordan Milbourne would normally have been playing at level 1,932 (based on typical behaviour), Henry 'Hitman' Walker played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 2.1%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 1.7% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Jordan Milbourne changes to 0% and Henry 'Hitman' Walker changes to +1.7%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Jordan Milbourne becomes 0% and for Henry 'Hitman' Walker becomes +1.5%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2022/2023' so the adjustment for Jordan Milbourne is 0% and for Henry 'Hitman' Walker is +1.1%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Jordan Milbourne: 76%, Henry 'Hitman' Walker: 77%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Jordan Milbourne: 73%, Henry 'Hitman' Walker: 74%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Henry 'Hitman' Walker: 1,415, level confidence: 74%. Final level for Jordan Milbourne: 2,009, level confidence: 73%. Notes
|