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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 3: Kingsdown Stallions v BAWA / Kingswood (Wed 29 Mar 2023)Match played between Javier 'Statham' Covo Grandes (home) and Ian Pittas (away).Match won by Javier 'Statham' Covo Grandes. Result: 15-10,15-7,7-15,15-3. Starting level for Javier 'Statham' Covo Grandes: 1,740, level confidence: 79%. Set manually. Starting level for Ian Pittas: 2,308, level confidence: 76%. Set manually. Ian Pittas to win as he is currently playing 33% better than Javier 'Statham' Covo Grandes. Javier 'Statham' Covo Grandes won 75% of the games and 60% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 49% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Javier 'Statham' Covo Grandes played 33% better than Ian Pittas in this match. An upset! Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Javier 'Statham' Covo Grandes actually played at a level of 2,309 and Ian Pittas at a level of 1,739. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 33% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 28% and 28% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Javier 'Statham' Covo Grandes changes to +27% and Ian Pittas changes to -28%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Javier 'Statham' Covo Grandes becomes +11.5% and for Ian Pittas becomes -10.7%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2022/2023' so the adjustment for Javier 'Statham' Covo Grandes is +8.6% and for Ian Pittas is -7.8%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Ian Pittas is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Javier 'Statham' Covo Grandes: 89%, Ian Pittas: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Javier 'Statham' Covo Grandes: 67%, Ian Pittas: 66%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Javier 'Statham' Covo Grandes: 1,887, level confidence: 67%. Final level for Ian Pittas: 2,195, level confidence: 66%. Notes
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