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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 1: Lansdown 3 v Redland Eagles (Wed 26 Apr 2023)Match played between Alisdair Wriglesworth (home) and Will Artingstall (away).Match won by Alisdair Wriglesworth. Result: 12-15,15-10,15-5,5-15,15-7:13-15,15-6,15-9,15-12:15-10,16-14,15-11:15-7,15-11,15-13:8-15,13-15,15-11,11-15. Starting level for Alisdair Wriglesworth: 2,965, level confidence: 74%. Set manually. Starting level for Will Artingstall: 2,268, level confidence: 71%. Set manually. Alisdair Wriglesworth to win as he is currently playing 31% better than Will Artingstall. Alisdair Wriglesworth won 60% of the games and 54% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 19% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Alisdair Wriglesworth played 12% better than Will Artingstall in this match. As Alisdair Wriglesworth has played below his allowed range at 2,676, his level reduction is 5.1% before damping. On the assumption that Alisdair Wriglesworth would normally have been playing at level 2,896 (based on typical behaviour), Will Artingstall played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 6.6%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 4.4% and 5.8% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Alisdair Wriglesworth changes to -4.2% and Will Artingstall changes to +5.8%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Alisdair Wriglesworth becomes -2.5% and for Will Artingstall becomes +3.2%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2022/2023' so the adjustment for Alisdair Wriglesworth is -1.8% and for Will Artingstall is +2.4%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Alisdair Wriglesworth: 86%, Will Artingstall: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Alisdair Wriglesworth: 80%, Will Artingstall: 78%. A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Alisdair Wriglesworth: 2,907, level confidence: 80%. Final level for Will Artingstall: 2,319, level confidence: 78%. Notes
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