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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 1: Weston String Strokers v Lansdown 3 (Wed 22 Feb 2023)Match played between George 'Warm-Up' Weston (home) and Alisdair Wriglesworth (away).Match won by George 'Warm-Up' Weston. Result: 15-7,12-15,12-15,15-13,15-2:19-17,15-8,15-11:13-15,15-11:11-15,7-15,16-14,15-12,15-4:15-8,15-9,16-14. Starting level for George 'Warm-Up' Weston: 4,127, level confidence: 71%. Set manually. Starting level for Alisdair Wriglesworth: 2,761, level confidence: 70%. George 'Warm-Up' Weston to win as he is currently playing 49% better than Alisdair Wriglesworth. George 'Warm-Up' Weston won 60% of the games and 57% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 33% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that George 'Warm-Up' Weston played 16% better than Alisdair Wriglesworth in this match. As George 'Warm-Up' Weston has played below his allowed range at 3,437, his level reduction is 7.6% before damping. On the assumption that George 'Warm-Up' Weston would normally have been playing at level 3,931 (based on typical behaviour), Alisdair Wriglesworth played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 10.9%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 6.2% and 8.9% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for George 'Warm-Up' Weston changes to -6% and Alisdair Wriglesworth changes to +8.9%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for George 'Warm-Up' Weston becomes -2.8% and for Alisdair Wriglesworth becomes +4.1%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2022/2023' so the adjustment for George 'Warm-Up' Weston is -2.1% and for Alisdair Wriglesworth is +3%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. George 'Warm-Up' Weston: 84%, Alisdair Wriglesworth: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. George 'Warm-Up' Weston: 74%, Alisdair Wriglesworth: 73%. A final adjustment of -5.8% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for George 'Warm-Up' Weston: 3,650, level confidence: 74%. Final level for Alisdair Wriglesworth: 2,817, level confidence: 73%. Notes
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