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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 1: Lansdown 3 v Weston String Strokers (Wed 01 Feb 2023)Match played between Richard Dixon (home) and Shawn Hale (away).Match won by Richard Dixon. Result: 15-3,15-6,15-5. Starting level for Richard Dixon: 1,892, level confidence: 75%. Set manually. Starting level for Shawn Hale: 1,082, level confidence: 76%. Set manually. Richard Dixon to win as he is currently playing 75% better than Shawn Hale. Richard Dixon won all of the games and 76% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 221% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Richard Dixon played 221% better than Shawn Hale in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Richard Dixon actually played at a level of 2,565 and Shawn Hale at a level of 798. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 36% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 26% and 26% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Richard Dixon changes to +26% and Shawn Hale changes to -25%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Richard Dixon becomes +10.6% and for Shawn Hale becomes -13%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2022/2023' so the adjustment for Richard Dixon is +8% and for Shawn Hale is -9.5%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Shawn Hale is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Richard Dixon: 86%, Shawn Hale: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Richard Dixon: 64%, Shawn Hale: 64%. A final adjustment of -0.4% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Richard Dixon: 1,966, level confidence: 64%. Final level for Shawn Hale: 1,061, level confidence: 64%. Notes
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