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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 1: Gordano - Gordano v Redland Eagles (Wed 08 Feb 2023)Match played between Mark Richardson (home) and Mark Beech (away).Match won by Mark Beech. Result: 5-15,7-15,11-15. Starting level for Mark Richardson: 619, level confidence: 50%. Starting level for Mark Beech: 1,662, level confidence: 72%. Set manually. Mark Beech to win as he is currently playing 168% better than Mark Richardson. Mark Beech won all of the games and 66% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 96% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mark Beech played 96% better than Mark Richardson in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Mark Beech was taking it easy by anything up to 21%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 982 and 1,662 without affecting his level. In this case, Mark Beech played at level 1,262 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Mark Beech would normally have been playing at level 1,316 (based on typical behaviour), Mark Richardson played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 4.2%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, including some additional protection for the better player, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 2.6% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mark Beech changes to 0% and Mark Richardson changes to +2.6%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mark Beech becomes 0% and for Mark Richardson becomes +2.6%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2022/2023' so the adjustment for Mark Beech is 0% and for Mark Richardson is +1.9%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mark Beech: 85%, Mark Richardson: 71%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mark Beech: 72%, Mark Richardson: 60%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Mark Richardson: 630, level confidence: 60%. Final level for Mark Beech: 1,660, level confidence: 72%. Notes
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