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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 1: Redland Winter Jaguars v University of Bristol Chicken Dinners (Thu 09 Mar 2023)Match played between Ruth Drysdale (home) and Maddie 'Hummus' Martin (away).Match won by Ruth Drysdale. Result: 15-2,15-10,15-2. Starting level for Ruth Drysdale: 650, level confidence: 74%. Set manually. Starting level for Maddie 'Hummus' Martin: 421, level confidence: 45%. Ruth Drysdale to win as she is currently playing 54% better than Maddie 'Hummus' Martin. Ruth Drysdale won all of the games and 76% of the points. This games result would be expected if she was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if she was better by around 221% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ruth Drysdale played 221% better than Maddie 'Hummus' Martin in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Ruth Drysdale actually played at a level of 938 and Maddie 'Hummus' Martin at a level of 292. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 44% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 34% and 34% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ruth Drysdale changes to +21% and Maddie 'Hummus' Martin changes to -34%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ruth Drysdale becomes +11.6% and for Maddie 'Hummus' Martin becomes -18%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Womens Womans Spring 2022/2023' so the adjustment for Ruth Drysdale is +8.7% and for Maddie 'Hummus' Martin is -13%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Maddie 'Hummus' Martin is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ruth Drysdale: 86%, Maddie 'Hummus' Martin: 67%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ruth Drysdale: 60%, Maddie 'Hummus' Martin: 47%. A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Ruth Drysdale: 706, level confidence: 60%. Final level for Maddie 'Hummus' Martin: 400, level confidence: 47%. Notes
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