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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 1: Redland Winter Lynx v Workout Harbourside A (Thu 16 Mar 2023)Match played between Alisha Bhanot (home) and Kathryn Field (away).Match won by Alisha Bhanot. Result: 15-11,15-7,15-9. Starting level for Alisha Bhanot: 1,315, level confidence: 70%. Set manually. Starting level for Kathryn Field: 668, level confidence: 69%. Alisha Bhanot to win as she is currently playing 97% better than Kathryn Field. Alisha Bhanot won all of the games and 63% of the points. This games result would be expected if she was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if she was better by around 67% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Alisha Bhanot played 67% better than Kathryn Field in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Alisha Bhanot was taking it easy by anything up to 12%. This gives her an allowed level range for this match between 991 and 1,315 without affecting her level. In this case, Alisha Bhanot played at level 1,136 and remained within her allowed range so her level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Alisha Bhanot would normally have been playing at level 1,160 (based on typical behaviour), Kathryn Field played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 2.1%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 1.5% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Alisha Bhanot changes to 0% and Kathryn Field changes to +1.5%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Alisha Bhanot becomes 0% and for Kathryn Field becomes +1.5%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Womens Womans Spring 2022/2023' so the adjustment for Alisha Bhanot is 0% and for Kathryn Field is +1.1%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Alisha Bhanot: 84%, Kathryn Field: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Alisha Bhanot: 77%, Kathryn Field: 76%. A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Alisha Bhanot: 1,313, level confidence: 77%. Final level for Kathryn Field: 674, level confidence: 76%. Notes
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