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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 1: Workout Harbourside A v University of Bristol Chicken Dinners (Thu 02 Mar 2023)Match played between Maddie Reader (home) and Henna Ranu (away).Match won by Maddie Reader. Result: 15-6,15-9,15-10. Starting level for Maddie Reader: 808, level confidence: 73%. Set manually. Starting level for Henna Ranu: 278, level confidence: 50%. Maddie Reader to win as she is currently playing 191% better than Henna Ranu. Maddie Reader won all of the games and 64% of the points. This games result would be expected if she was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if she was better by around 80% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Maddie Reader played 80% better than Henna Ranu in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Maddie Reader was taking it easy by anything up to 23%. This gives her an allowed level range for this match between 444 and 808 without affecting her level. In this case, Maddie Reader played at level 557 and remained within her allowed range so her level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Maddie Reader would normally have been playing at level 619 (based on typical behaviour), Henna Ranu played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 11%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, including some additional protection for the better player, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 6.4% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Maddie Reader changes to 0% and Henna Ranu changes to +6.4%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Maddie Reader becomes 0% and for Henna Ranu becomes +4.7%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Womens Womans Spring 2022/2023' so the adjustment for Maddie Reader is 0% and for Henna Ranu is +3.5%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Maddie Reader: 85%, Henna Ranu: 71%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Maddie Reader: 67%, Henna Ranu: 55%. A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Maddie Reader: 807, level confidence: 67%. Final level for Henna Ranu: 287, level confidence: 55%. Notes
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