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Login: | Explaining level changesJosh Taylor v Kunle 'Thanos' Adeboye (Fri 13 Jan 2023)Match won by Josh Taylor. Result: 15-10,15-9,15-8.Starting level for Josh Taylor: 1,244, level confidence: 73%. Set manually. Starting level for Kunle 'Thanos' Adeboye: 1,334, level confidence: 60%. Kunle 'Thanos' Adeboye to win as he is currently playing 7% better than Josh Taylor. Josh Taylor won all of the games and 63% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 67% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Josh Taylor played 67% better than Kunle 'Thanos' Adeboye in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Josh Taylor actually played at a level of 1,663 and Kunle 'Thanos' Adeboye at a level of 998. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 34% to match this result. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Josh Taylor changes to +26% and Kunle 'Thanos' Adeboye changes to -32%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Josh Taylor becomes +12.8% and for Kunle 'Thanos' Adeboye becomes -15%. Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Redland Green Boxes' so the adjustment for Josh Taylor is +6.4% and for Kunle 'Thanos' Adeboye is -6.9%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Kunle 'Thanos' Adeboye is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Josh Taylor: 86%, Kunle 'Thanos' Adeboye: 77%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Josh Taylor: 64%, Kunle 'Thanos' Adeboye: 58%. A final adjustment of +0.6% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Josh Taylor: 1,322, level confidence: 64%. Final level for Kunle 'Thanos' Adeboye: 1,288, level confidence: 58%. Notes
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