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Login: | Explaining level changesKunle 'Thanos' Adeboye v Alex Taylor (Tue 14 Mar 2023)Match won by Kunle 'Thanos' Adeboye. Result: 11-8,11-1,11-4.Starting level for Kunle 'Thanos' Adeboye: 1,767, level confidence: 78%. Set manually. Starting level for Alex Taylor: 1,519, level confidence: 55%. Kunle 'Thanos' Adeboye to win as he is currently playing 16% better than Alex Taylor. Kunle 'Thanos' Adeboye won all of the games and 72% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 154% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Kunle 'Thanos' Adeboye played 154% better than Alex Taylor in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Kunle 'Thanos' Adeboye actually played at a level of 2,610 and Alex Taylor at a level of 1,028. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 48% to match this result. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Kunle 'Thanos' Adeboye changes to +31% and Alex Taylor changes to -44%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Kunle 'Thanos' Adeboye becomes +12.6% and for Alex Taylor becomes -18%. Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Brs Bristol Rally 🏆 League' so the adjustment for Kunle 'Thanos' Adeboye is +6.3% and for Alex Taylor is -8.3%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Alex Taylor is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Kunle 'Thanos' Adeboye: 88%, Alex Taylor: 74%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Kunle 'Thanos' Adeboye: 60%, Alex Taylor: 50%. A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Kunle 'Thanos' Adeboye: 1,878, level confidence: 60%. Final level for Alex Taylor: 1,450, level confidence: 50%. Notes
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