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Login: | Explaining level changesThomas Williams v Gabriel Popplewell (Sat 01 Apr 2023)Match won by Thomas Williams. Result: 15-13,11-15,11-15,15-13,15-9.Starting level for Thomas Williams: 669, level confidence: 65%. Starting level for Gabriel Popplewell: 338, level confidence: 66%. Thomas Williams to win as he is currently playing 98% better than Gabriel Popplewell. Thomas Williams won 60% of the games and 51% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 3% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Thomas Williams played 8% better than Gabriel Popplewell in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Thomas Williams was taking it easy by anything up to 12%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 486 and 669 without affecting his level. As Thomas Williams has played below his allowed range at 422, his level reduction is 15% before damping. On the assumption that Thomas Williams would normally have been playing at level 589 (based on typical behaviour), Gabriel Popplewell played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 27%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, including some additional protection for the better player, the adjustments have been reduced to 9.4% and 18% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Thomas Williams changes to -9.4% and Gabriel Popplewell changes to +18%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Thomas Williams becomes -6.2% and for Gabriel Popplewell becomes +10.4%. Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Redland Green Boxes' so the adjustment for Thomas Williams is -3% and for Gabriel Popplewell is +5.2%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Thomas Williams: 81%, Gabriel Popplewell: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Thomas Williams: 60%, Gabriel Popplewell: 60%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Thomas Williams: 649, level confidence: 60%. Final level for Gabriel Popplewell: 355, level confidence: 60%. Notes
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