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Login: | Explaining level changesBarney Sykes v Nick 'Or Tin' Benson (Fri 05 May 2023)Match won by Barney Sykes. Result: 9-11,13-11,11-7,11-4.Starting level for Barney Sykes: 5,594, level confidence: 66%. Starting level for Nick 'Or Tin' Benson: 4,419, level confidence: 83%. Set manually. Barney Sykes to win as he is currently playing 27% better than Nick 'Or Tin' Benson. Barney Sykes won 75% of the games and 57% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 33% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Barney Sykes played 28% better than Nick 'Or Tin' Benson in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Barney Sykes actually played at a level of 5,620 and Nick 'Or Tin' Benson at a level of 4,399. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 0.5% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0.4% and 0.4% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Barney Sykes changes to +0.4% and Nick 'Or Tin' Benson changes to -0.3%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Barney Sykes becomes +0.2% and for Nick 'Or Tin' Benson becomes 0%. Given Barney Sykes's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 59% has been applied to his level change. Given Nick 'Or Tin' Benson's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 41% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Redland Green Boxes' so the adjustment for Barney Sykes is 0% and for Nick 'Or Tin' Benson is 0%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Barney Sykes: 81%, Nick 'Or Tin' Benson: 91%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Barney Sykes: 81%, Nick 'Or Tin' Benson: 91%. A final adjustment of +0.7% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Barney Sykes: 5,597, level confidence: 81%. Final level for Nick 'Or Tin' Benson: 4,476, level confidence: 91%. Notes
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