|
Menu
Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 1: Avon West / Bristol Wanderers - Summer K1 v Redland Summer C (Wed 19 Jul 2023)Match played between Nick 'Or Tin' Benson (home) and Harry Duckworth (away).Match won by Nick 'Or Tin' Benson. Result: 11-9,6-11,13-11,13-11:11-8,11-6,8-11,9-11,11-8:4-11,11-5,10-12,7-11:10-12,6-11,11-6,8-11. Starting level for Nick 'Or Tin' Benson: 5,054, level confidence: 68%. Starting level for Harry Duckworth: 4,619, level confidence: 75%. Set manually. Nick 'Or Tin' Benson to win as he is currently playing 9% better than Harry Duckworth. Nick 'Or Tin' Benson won 75% of the games and 51% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 2% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Nick 'Or Tin' Benson played 18% better than Harry Duckworth in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Nick 'Or Tin' Benson actually played at a level of 5,238 and Harry Duckworth at a level of 4,457. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 3.6% to match this result. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Nick 'Or Tin' Benson changes to +3.5% and Harry Duckworth changes to -3.1%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Nick 'Or Tin' Benson becomes +1.9% and for Harry Duckworth becomes -1.9%. Given Nick 'Or Tin' Benson's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 0.4% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Mixed Summer 2022/2023' so the adjustment for Nick 'Or Tin' Benson is +1.2% and for Harry Duckworth is -1.2%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Nick 'Or Tin' Benson: 82%, Harry Duckworth: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Nick 'Or Tin' Benson: 79%, Harry Duckworth: 84%. A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Nick 'Or Tin' Benson: 5,108, level confidence: 79%. Final level for Harry Duckworth: 4,557, level confidence: 84%. Notes
|