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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 1: Gordano - Gordano v Avon West / Bristol Wanderers - Summer K1 (Wed 26 Jul 2023)Match played between Steve Gale (home) and Nick 'Or Tin' Benson (away).Match won by Nick 'Or Tin' Benson. Result: 5-11,8-11,5-11. Starting level for Steve Gale: 1,933, level confidence: 64%. Starting level for Nick 'Or Tin' Benson: 5,092, level confidence: 83%. Set manually. Nick 'Or Tin' Benson to win as he is currently playing 163% better than Steve Gale. Nick 'Or Tin' Benson won all of the games and 65% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 83% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Nick 'Or Tin' Benson played 83% better than Steve Gale in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Nick 'Or Tin' Benson was taking it easy by anything up to 20%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 2,993 and 5,092 without affecting his level. In this case, Nick 'Or Tin' Benson played at level 3,794 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Nick 'Or Tin' Benson would normally have been playing at level 4,061 (based on typical behaviour), Steve Gale played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 7.1%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, including some additional protection for the better player, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 4.3% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Nick 'Or Tin' Benson changes to 0% and Steve Gale changes to +4.3%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Nick 'Or Tin' Benson becomes 0% and for Steve Gale becomes +2.8%. Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Mixed Summer 2022/2023' so the adjustment for Nick 'Or Tin' Benson is 0% and for Steve Gale is +1.8%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Nick 'Or Tin' Benson: 91%, Steve Gale: 80%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Nick 'Or Tin' Benson: 76%, Steve Gale: 67%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Steve Gale: 1,966, level confidence: 67%. Final level for Nick 'Or Tin' Benson: 5,084, level confidence: 76%. Notes
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