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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier: Rhiwbina v Lansdown Summer A (Tue 20 Jun 2023)Match played between Lewis Poole (home) and Mark Radley (away).Match won by Lewis Poole. Result: 7-11,5-11,11-7,11-3,11-2:11-3,11-6,11-2:11-7,11-4,11-6:12-10,11-8,11-6. Starting level for Lewis Poole: 18,940, level confidence: 47%. Starting level for Mark Radley: 13,849, level confidence: 71%. Set manually. Lewis Poole to win as he is currently playing 37% better than Mark Radley. Lewis Poole won 60% of the games and 57% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 32% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Lewis Poole played 16% better than Mark Radley in this match. As Lewis Poole has played below his allowed range at 16,783, his level reduction is 4.8% before damping. On the assumption that Lewis Poole would normally have been playing at level 18,356 (based on typical behaviour), Mark Radley played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 7.1%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 4.1% and 6% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Lewis Poole changes to -4.1% and Mark Radley changes to +4%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Lewis Poole becomes -1.6% and for Mark Radley becomes +1.6%. Given Lewis Poole's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 86% has been applied to his level change. Given Mark Radley's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 58% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Mixed Summer 2022/2023' so the adjustment for Lewis Poole is -0.5% and for Mark Radley is +0.7%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Lewis Poole: 69%, Mark Radley: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Lewis Poole: 63%, Mark Radley: 77%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Lewis Poole: 18,810, level confidence: 63%. Final level for Mark Radley: 13,921, level confidence: 77%. Notes
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