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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier: Lansdown Summer A v Rhiwbina (Wed 12 Jul 2023)Match played between Adam Conisbee (home) and Alex Rowlands (away).Match won by Alex Rowlands. Result: 8-11,9-11,8-11. Starting level for Adam Conisbee: 3,120, level confidence: 70%. Set manually. Starting level for Alex Rowlands: 5,356, level confidence: 70%. Set manually. Alex Rowlands to win as he is currently playing 72% better than Adam Conisbee. Alex Rowlands won all of the games and 57% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 32% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Alex Rowlands played 40% better than Adam Conisbee in this match. As Alex Rowlands has played below his allowed range at 4,385, his level reduction is 0.7% before damping. On the assumption that Alex Rowlands would normally have been playing at level 4,933 (based on typical behaviour), Adam Conisbee played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 6.4%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0.5% and 4.9% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Alex Rowlands changes to -0.5% and Adam Conisbee changes to +4.9%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Alex Rowlands becomes -0.3% and for Adam Conisbee becomes +2.6%. Given Alex Rowlands's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 2.8% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Mixed Summer 2022/2023' so the adjustment for Alex Rowlands is 0% and for Adam Conisbee is +1.7%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Alex Rowlands: 84%, Adam Conisbee: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Alex Rowlands: 76%, Adam Conisbee: 75%. A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Adam Conisbee: 3,168, level confidence: 75%. Final level for Alex Rowlands: 5,338, level confidence: 76%. Notes
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