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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier: Lansdown Summer A v Redland Summer A (Wed 14 Jun 2023)Match played between Mark Radley (home) and Phil Reddaway (away).Match won by Mark Radley. Result: 11-2,11-3,11-3:11-1,11-8,11-3:6-11,9-11,11-9,8-11:7-11,11-9,8-11,11-13. Starting level for Mark Radley: 14,128, level confidence: 61%. Starting level for Phil Reddaway: 4,803, level confidence: 81%. Set manually. Mark Radley to win as he is currently playing 194% better than Phil Reddaway. Mark Radley won all of the games and 80% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 313% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mark Radley played 313% better than Phil Reddaway in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mark Radley actually played at a level of 16,730 and Phil Reddaway at a level of 4,056. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 18% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, including some additional protection for the better player, the adjustments have been reduced to 3.6% and 10.4% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mark Radley changes to +3.6% and Phil Reddaway changes to -7.6%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mark Radley becomes +1.5% and for Phil Reddaway becomes -3.1%. Given Mark Radley's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 59% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Mixed Summer 2022/2023' so the adjustment for Mark Radley is +0.6% and for Phil Reddaway is -2%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mark Radley: 78%, Phil Reddaway: 90%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mark Radley: 66%, Phil Reddaway: 76%. A final adjustment of -1.7% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Mark Radley: 13,849, level confidence: 66%. Final level for Phil Reddaway: 4,677, level confidence: 76%. Notes
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