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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier: Lansdown Summer A v Redland Summer A (Wed 14 Jun 2023)Match played between Andy Ewings (home) and Mike Nichols (away).Match won by Andy Ewings. Result: 11-1,11-8,11-3. Starting level for Andy Ewings: 6,951, level confidence: 54%. Starting level for Mike Nichols: 5,144, level confidence: 55%. Andy Ewings to win as he is currently playing 35% better than Mike Nichols. Andy Ewings won all of the games and 73% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 175% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Andy Ewings played 175% better than Mike Nichols in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Andy Ewings actually played at a level of 9,916 and Mike Nichols at a level of 3,606. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 43% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 36% and 36% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Andy Ewings changes to +36% and Mike Nichols changes to -36%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Andy Ewings becomes +9.5% and for Mike Nichols becomes -10.3%. Given Andy Ewings's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 15% has been applied to his level change. Given Mike Nichols's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 1.1% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously... Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Mixed Summer 2022/2023' so the adjustment for Andy Ewings is +5.4% and for Mike Nichols is -6.4%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Andy Ewings: 74%, Mike Nichols: 74%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Andy Ewings: 52%, Mike Nichols: 52%. A final adjustment of +0.8% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Andy Ewings: 7,312, level confidence: 52%. Final level for Mike Nichols: 4,926, level confidence: 52%. Notes
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