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Login: | Explaining level changesNick 'Or Tin' Benson v Mike Sherman (Wed 31 May 2023)Match won by Nick 'Or Tin' Benson. Result: 11-6,16-14,11-8.Starting level for Nick 'Or Tin' Benson: 4,692, level confidence: 61%. Starting level for Mike Sherman: 3,067, level confidence: 86%. Set manually. Nick 'Or Tin' Benson to win as he is currently playing 53% better than Mike Sherman. Nick 'Or Tin' Benson won all of the games and 58% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 36% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Nick 'Or Tin' Benson played 42% better than Mike Sherman in this match. In this case, Nick 'Or Tin' Benson played at level 4,402 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Nick 'Or Tin' Benson would normally have been playing at level 4,447 (based on typical behaviour), Mike Sherman played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 1%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 0.8% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Nick 'Or Tin' Benson changes to 0% and Mike Sherman changes to +0.6%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Nick 'Or Tin' Benson becomes 0% and for Mike Sherman becomes +0.4%. Given Mike Sherman's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 20% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Redland Green Boxes' so the adjustment for Nick 'Or Tin' Benson is 0% and for Mike Sherman is 0%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Nick 'Or Tin' Benson: 78%, Mike Sherman: 93%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Nick 'Or Tin' Benson: 75%, Mike Sherman: 90%. A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Nick 'Or Tin' Benson: 4,721, level confidence: 75%. Final level for Mike Sherman: 3,069, level confidence: 90%. Notes
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