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Login: | Explaining level changesBen 'Thorpe Thorpe Thorpe' Thorpe v Ben 'Burger' Knight (Mon 05 Jun 2023)Match won by Ben 'Burger' Knight. Result: 5-11,2-11.Starting level for Ben 'Thorpe Thorpe Thorpe' Thorpe: 2,745, level confidence: 59%. Starting level for Ben 'Burger' Knight: 2,395, level confidence: 75%. Set manually. Ben 'Thorpe Thorpe Thorpe' Thorpe to win as he is currently playing 15% better than Ben 'Burger' Knight. Ben 'Burger' Knight won all of the games and 76% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 214% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ben 'Burger' Knight played 214% better than Ben 'Thorpe Thorpe Thorpe' Thorpe in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Ben 'Burger' Knight actually played at a level of 4,546 and Ben 'Thorpe Thorpe Thorpe' Thorpe at a level of 1,446. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 90% to match this result. As this is a best of 3 match rather than best of 5, these adjustments have been reduced to 57% and 57% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ben 'Burger' Knight changes to +45% and Ben 'Thorpe Thorpe Thorpe' Thorpe changes to -57%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ben 'Burger' Knight becomes +15.7% and for Ben 'Thorpe Thorpe Thorpe' Thorpe becomes -18%. Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Challenge' so the adjustment is unchanged. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Ben 'Burger' Knight is limited to +10% and Ben 'Thorpe Thorpe Thorpe' Thorpe is limited to -9.4% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ben 'Burger' Knight: 86%, Ben 'Thorpe Thorpe Thorpe' Thorpe: 77%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ben 'Burger' Knight: 46%, Ben 'Thorpe Thorpe Thorpe' Thorpe: 41%. A final adjustment of +1.5% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Ben 'Thorpe Thorpe Thorpe' Thorpe: 2,588, level confidence: 41%. Final level for Ben 'Burger' Knight: 2,631, level confidence: 46%. Notes
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