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Login: | Explaining level changesDale Diment v Adam Chambers (Sat 13 May 2023)Match won by Dale Diment. Result: 11-6,11-8,11-5.Starting level for Dale Diment: 6,782, level confidence: 10%. Starting level for Adam Chambers: 1,964, level confidence: 76%. Set manually. Dale Diment to win as he is currently playing 245% better than Adam Chambers. Dale Diment won all of the games and 63% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 74% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Dale Diment played 74% better than Adam Chambers in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Dale Diment was taking it easy by anything up to 29%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 3,401 and 6,782 without affecting his level. In this case, Dale Diment played at level 4,048 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Dale Diment would normally have been playing at level 4,803 (based on typical behaviour), Adam Chambers played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 19%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, including some additional protection for the better player, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 9.6% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Dale Diment changes to 0% and Adam Chambers changes to +1.3%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Dale Diment becomes 0% and for Adam Chambers becomes +1%. Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Redland Club Closed 2023' so the adjustment is unchanged. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Dale Diment: 32%, Adam Chambers: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Dale Diment: 22%, Adam Chambers: 62%. A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Dale Diment: 6,799, level confidence: 22%. Final level for Adam Chambers: 1,988, level confidence: 62%. Notes
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