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Login: | Explaining level changesTom Yates v Will Davies (Thu 13 Jul 2023)Match won by Will Davies. Result: 13-15,16-14,14-16,5-15.Starting level for Tom Yates: 326, level confidence: 63%. Starting level for Will Davies: 774, level confidence: 67%. Will Davies to win as he is currently playing 137% better than Tom Yates. Will Davies won 75% of the games and 56% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 25% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Will Davies played 25% better than Tom Yates in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Will Davies was taking it easy by anything up to 17%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 484 and 774 without affecting his level. As Will Davies has played below his allowed range at 444, his level reduction is 9% before damping. On the assumption that Will Davies would normally have been playing at level 641 (based on typical behaviour), Tom Yates played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 25%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, including some additional protection for the better player, the adjustments have been reduced to 3.5% and 16% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Will Davies changes to -3.3% and Tom Yates changes to +16%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Will Davies becomes -3.2% and for Tom Yates becomes +9.2%. Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Westbury David Lloyd Boxes' so the adjustment for Will Davies is -1.6% and for Tom Yates is +4.6%. As Tom Yates has a provisional level, this match has been used to calibrate his level so Will Davies's level has been left unchanged. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Will Davies: 82%, Tom Yates: 79%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Will Davies: 59%, Tom Yates: 58%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Tom Yates: 341, level confidence: 58%. Final level for Will Davies: 773, level confidence: 59%. Notes
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