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Login: | Explaining level changesGiles Sharley v Ben 'Burger' Knight (Thu 20 Jul 2023)Match won by Giles Sharley. Result: 11-7,11-3,11-2.Starting level for Giles Sharley: 3,602, level confidence: 78%. Set manually. Starting level for Ben 'Burger' Knight: 2,536, level confidence: 45%. Giles Sharley to win as he is currently playing 42% better than Ben 'Burger' Knight. Giles Sharley won all of the games and 73% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 175% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Giles Sharley played 175% better than Ben 'Burger' Knight in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Giles Sharley actually played at a level of 5,012 and Ben 'Burger' Knight at a level of 1,823. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 39% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 31% and 32% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Giles Sharley changes to +18% and Ben 'Burger' Knight changes to -32%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Giles Sharley becomes +6.6% and for Ben 'Burger' Knight becomes -12%. Given Giles Sharley's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 28% has been applied to his level change. Given Ben 'Burger' Knight's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 10.2% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously... Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Redland Green Boxes' so the adjustment for Giles Sharley is +2.6% and for Ben 'Burger' Knight is -4.9%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Giles Sharley: 88%, Ben 'Burger' Knight: 67%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Giles Sharley: 63%, Ben 'Burger' Knight: 48%. A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Giles Sharley: 3,689, level confidence: 63%. Final level for Ben 'Burger' Knight: 2,413, level confidence: 48%. Notes
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