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Login: | Explaining level changesRob Jeeves v Ben 'Burger' Knight (Sat 22 Jul 2023)Match won by Rob Jeeves. Result: 11-2,11-4,11-6.Starting level for Rob Jeeves: 4,087, level confidence: 82%. Set manually. Starting level for Ben 'Burger' Knight: 2,413, level confidence: 48%. Rob Jeeves to win as he is currently playing 69% better than Ben 'Burger' Knight. Rob Jeeves won all of the games and 73% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 175% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Rob Jeeves played 175% better than Ben 'Burger' Knight in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Rob Jeeves actually played at a level of 5,208 and Ben 'Burger' Knight at a level of 1,894. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 27% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 20% and 20% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Rob Jeeves changes to +12% and Ben 'Burger' Knight changes to -20%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Rob Jeeves becomes +4.4% and for Ben 'Burger' Knight becomes -8.2%. Given Rob Jeeves's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 36% has been applied to his level change. Given Ben 'Burger' Knight's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 8% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Redland Green Boxes' so the adjustment for Rob Jeeves is +1.6% and for Ben 'Burger' Knight is -3.6%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Rob Jeeves: 90%, Ben 'Burger' Knight: 69%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Rob Jeeves: 71%, Ben 'Burger' Knight: 54%. A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Rob Jeeves: 4,147, level confidence: 71%. Final level for Ben 'Burger' Knight: 2,325, level confidence: 54%. Notes
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