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Login: | Explaining level changesNick 'Or Tin' Benson v Giles Sharley (Tue 25 Jul 2023)Match won by Nick 'Or Tin' Benson. Result: 11-8,11-9,10-12,11-6.Starting level for Nick 'Or Tin' Benson: 5,108, level confidence: 77%. Set manually. Starting level for Giles Sharley: 3,689, level confidence: 62%. Nick 'Or Tin' Benson to win as he is currently playing 38% better than Giles Sharley. Nick 'Or Tin' Benson won 75% of the games and 55% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 23% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Nick 'Or Tin' Benson played 24% better than Giles Sharley in this match. As Nick 'Or Tin' Benson has played below his allowed range at 4,641, his level reduction is 1.2% before damping. On the assumption that Nick 'Or Tin' Benson would normally have been playing at level 4,939 (based on typical behaviour), Giles Sharley played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 3.8%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 1% and 3.2% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Nick 'Or Tin' Benson changes to -0.8% and Giles Sharley changes to +3.2%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Nick 'Or Tin' Benson becomes -0.5% and for Giles Sharley becomes +2%. Given Nick 'Or Tin' Benson's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 51% has been applied to his level change. Given Giles Sharley's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 30% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Redland Green Boxes' so the adjustment for Nick 'Or Tin' Benson is 0% and for Giles Sharley is +0.8%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Nick 'Or Tin' Benson: 88%, Giles Sharley: 79%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Nick 'Or Tin' Benson: 83%, Giles Sharley: 75%. A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Nick 'Or Tin' Benson: 5,092, level confidence: 83%. Final level for Giles Sharley: 3,711, level confidence: 75%. Notes
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