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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 1: Workout Harbourside A v University of Bristol Chicken Dinners (Thu 09 Nov 2023)Match played between Kathryn Field (home) and Henna Ranu (away).Match won by Kathryn Field. Result: 15-7,15-9,15-6. Starting level for Kathryn Field: 752, level confidence: 62%. Starting level for Henna Ranu: 248, level confidence: 40%. Kathryn Field to win as she is currently playing 203% better than Henna Ranu. Kathryn Field won all of the games and 67% of the points. This games result would be expected if she was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if she was better by around 105% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Kathryn Field played 105% better than Henna Ranu in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Kathryn Field was taking it easy by anything up to 25%. This gives her an allowed level range for this match between 396 and 752 without affecting her level. In this case, Kathryn Field played at level 536 and remained within her allowed range so her level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Kathryn Field would normally have been playing at level 566 (based on typical behaviour), Henna Ranu played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 5.6%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, including some additional protection for the better player, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 3.2% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Kathryn Field changes to 0% and Henna Ranu changes to +3.2%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Kathryn Field becomes 0% and for Henna Ranu becomes +3.1%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Womens Autumn 2023/2024' so the adjustment for Kathryn Field is 0% and for Henna Ranu is +2.3%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Kathryn Field: 79%, Henna Ranu: 64%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Kathryn Field: 65%, Henna Ranu: 52%. A final adjustment of -0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Kathryn Field: 751, level confidence: 65%. Final level for Henna Ranu: 253, level confidence: 52%. Notes
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