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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 1: Lansdown A v Redland Winter Jaguars (Thu 23 Nov 2023)Match played between Carolyn Chennells (home) and Claire Kedward (away).Match won by Claire Kedward. Result: 8-15,12-15,15-13,9-15:9-15,14-16,15-11,15-12,11-15:10-15,7-15,15-11,10-15:9-15,8-15,7-15. Starting level for Carolyn Chennells: 1,018, level confidence: 59%. Starting level for Claire Kedward: 1,661, level confidence: 86%. Set manually. Claire Kedward to win as she is currently playing 63% better than Carolyn Chennells. Claire Kedward won 75% of the games and 57% of the points. This games result would be expected if she was better by around 25%. This points result would be expected if she was better by around 32% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Claire Kedward played 27% better than Carolyn Chennells in this match. As Claire Kedward has played below her allowed range at 1,357, her level reduction is 4.8% before damping. On the assumption that Claire Kedward would normally have been playing at level 1,550 (based on typical behaviour), Carolyn Chennells played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 9.4%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 3.7% and 7.3% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Claire Kedward changes to -2.5% and Carolyn Chennells changes to +7.3%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Claire Kedward becomes -2.1% and for Carolyn Chennells becomes +5.1%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Womens Autumn 2023/2024' so the adjustment for Claire Kedward is -1.5% and for Carolyn Chennells is +3.8%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Claire Kedward: 93%, Carolyn Chennells: 77%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Claire Kedward: 82%, Carolyn Chennells: 68%. A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Carolyn Chennells: 1,055, level confidence: 68%. Final level for Claire Kedward: 1,633, level confidence: 82%. Notes
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