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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 1: Lansdown A v Redland Winter Jaguars (Thu 23 Nov 2023)Match played between Quita Colston (home) and Rachel ‘Beast’ Roger-Lund (away).Match won by Rachel ‘Beast’ Roger-Lund. Result: 9-15,8-15,7-15. Starting level for Quita Colston: 574, level confidence: 71%. Set manually. Starting level for Rachel ‘Beast’ Roger-Lund: 992, level confidence: 76%. Set manually. Rachel ‘Beast’ Roger-Lund to win as she is currently playing 73% better than Quita Colston. Rachel ‘Beast’ Roger-Lund won all of the games and 65% of the points. This games result would be expected if she was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if she was better by around 88% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Rachel ‘Beast’ Roger-Lund played 88% better than Quita Colston in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Rachel ‘Beast’ Roger-Lund actually played at a level of 1,033 and Quita Colston at a level of 551. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 4.2% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 3.1% and 3.1% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Rachel ‘Beast’ Roger-Lund changes to +2.9% and Quita Colston changes to -3.1%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Rachel ‘Beast’ Roger-Lund becomes +2.9% and for Quita Colston becomes -3.1%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Womens Autumn 2023/2024' so the adjustment for Rachel ‘Beast’ Roger-Lund is +2.2% and for Quita Colston is -2.3%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Rachel ‘Beast’ Roger-Lund: 87%, Quita Colston: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Rachel ‘Beast’ Roger-Lund: 84%, Quita Colston: 81%. A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Quita Colston: 560, level confidence: 81%. Final level for Rachel ‘Beast’ Roger-Lund: 1,012, level confidence: 84%. Notes
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