|
Menu
Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 3: Workout Harbourside A v Avon West - Doubles (Wed 06 Sep 2023)Match played between Seamus Singh/Daniel Delahunty (home) and Mike Secker/Jake West (away).Match won by Mike Secker/Jake West. Result: 3-15,8-15,4-15. Starting level for Seamus Singh/Daniel Delahunty: 1,349, level confidence: 10%. Starting level for Mike Secker/Jake West: 3,282, level confidence: 10%. Mike Secker/Jake West to win as he is currently playing 143% better than Seamus Singh/Daniel Delahunty. Mike Secker/Jake West won all of the games and 75% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 200% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mike Secker/Jake West played 200% better than Seamus Singh/Daniel Delahunty in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mike Secker/Jake West actually played at a level of 3,644 and Seamus Singh/Daniel Delahunty at a level of 1,215. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 11% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 6.3% and 6.9% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mike Secker/Jake West changes to +6.3% and Seamus Singh/Daniel Delahunty changes to -6.9%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mike Secker/Jake West becomes +3% and for Seamus Singh/Daniel Delahunty becomes -4.4%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Doubles - Playoff 2022/2023' so the adjustment for Mike Secker/Jake West is +2.3% and for Seamus Singh/Daniel Delahunty is -3.3%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mike Secker/Jake West: 32%, Seamus Singh/Daniel Delahunty: 32%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mike Secker/Jake West: 28%, Seamus Singh/Daniel Delahunty: 28%. A final adjustment of -NAN% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Seamus Singh/Daniel Delahunty: 1,207, level confidence: 28%. Final level for Mike Secker/Jake West: Still not known! Notes
|