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Login: | Explaining level changesRichard Acklam v Nye 'No Need To Shout!' Williams (Mon 04 Sep 2023)Match won by Richard Acklam. Result: 15-7,15-4,15-9.Starting level for Richard Acklam: 2,022, level confidence: 45%. Starting level for Nye 'No Need To Shout!' Williams: 1,218, level confidence: 79%. Set manually. Richard Acklam to win as he is currently playing 66% better than Nye 'No Need To Shout!' Williams. Richard Acklam won all of the games and 69% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 125% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Richard Acklam played 125% better than Nye 'No Need To Shout!' Williams in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Richard Acklam actually played at a level of 2,354 and Nye 'No Need To Shout!' Williams at a level of 1,046. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 16% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 12% and 13% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Richard Acklam changes to +12% and Nye 'No Need To Shout!' Williams changes to -6.8%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Richard Acklam becomes +5.7% and for Nye 'No Need To Shout!' Williams becomes -4.5%. Given Richard Acklam's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 0.4% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Redland Green Boxes' so the adjustment for Richard Acklam is +2.8% and for Nye 'No Need To Shout!' Williams is -2.2%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Richard Acklam: 67%, Nye 'No Need To Shout!' Williams: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Richard Acklam: 58%, Nye 'No Need To Shout!' Williams: 76%. A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Richard Acklam: 2,084, level confidence: 58%. Final level for Nye 'No Need To Shout!' Williams: 1,195, level confidence: 76%. Notes
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