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Login: | Explaining level changesRichard Masom v Will Artingstall (Tue 05 Sep 2023)Match won by Will Artingstall. Result: 14-16,15-13,6-15,15-7.Starting level for Richard Masom: 1,656, level confidence: 67%. Starting level for Will Artingstall: 2,261, level confidence: 82%. Set manually. Will Artingstall to win as he is currently playing 37% better than Richard Masom. Will Artingstall won 50% of the games and 50% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 0%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 2% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Will Artingstall played 1% better than Richard Masom in this match. As Will Artingstall has played below his allowed range at 1,869, his level reduction is 12% before damping. On the assumption that Will Artingstall would normally have been playing at level 2,192 (based on typical behaviour), Richard Masom played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 15%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 10% and 12% respectively. As this is a best of 3 match rather than best of 5, these adjustments have been reduced to 7.4% and 9.1% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Will Artingstall changes to -6% and Richard Masom changes to +9.1%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Will Artingstall becomes -3.3% and for Richard Masom becomes +4.9%. Given Will Artingstall's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 5.1% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Redland Green Boxes' so the adjustment for Will Artingstall is -1.6% and for Richard Masom is +2.5%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Will Artingstall: 91%, Richard Masom: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Will Artingstall: 78%, Richard Masom: 70%. A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Richard Masom: 1,701, level confidence: 70%. Final level for Will Artingstall: 2,232, level confidence: 78%. Notes
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