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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier B: Lansdown 2 v University of Bristol Ballers (Thu 14 Dec 2023)Match played between Tim Jones (home) and Nick 'Or Tin' Benson (away).Match won by Tim Jones. Result: 7-11,12-10,4-11,11-8,11-6:8-11,10-12,4-11:11-2,11-9,11-8:11-8,11-8,11-9:11-6,11-5,11-13,11-8. Starting level for Tim Jones: 4,174, level confidence: 69%. Starting level for Nick 'Or Tin' Benson: 5,941, level confidence: 78%. Set manually. Nick 'Or Tin' Benson to win as he is currently playing 42% better than Tim Jones. Tim Jones won 60% of the games and 49% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%. This points result would be expected if he was worse by around 2% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tim Jones played 7% better than Nick 'Or Tin' Benson in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Tim Jones actually played at a level of 5,150 and Nick 'Or Tin' Benson at a level of 4,815. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 23% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 19% and 19% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tim Jones changes to +19% and Nick 'Or Tin' Benson changes to -17%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tim Jones becomes +6.6% and for Nick 'Or Tin' Benson becomes -5.4%. Given Nick 'Or Tin' Benson's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 3.9% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2023/2024' so the adjustment for Tim Jones is +4.9% and for Nick 'Or Tin' Benson is -3.8%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tim Jones: 83%, Nick 'Or Tin' Benson: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tim Jones: 67%, Nick 'Or Tin' Benson: 71%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Tim Jones: 4,373, level confidence: 67%. Final level for Nick 'Or Tin' Benson: 5,713, level confidence: 71%. Notes
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