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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 5: Lansdown 5 v Weston Slappers (Wed 29 Nov 2023)Match played between James Gough (home) and Stephen Williams (away).Match won by Stephen Williams. Result: 8-15,9-15,10-15. Starting level for James Gough: 996, level confidence: 45%. Starting level for Stephen Williams: 1,017, level confidence: 66%. Stephen Williams to win as he is currently playing 2% better than James Gough. Stephen Williams won all of the games and 63% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 67% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Stephen Williams played 67% better than James Gough in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Stephen Williams actually played at a level of 1,299 and James Gough at a level of 780. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 28% to match this result. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Stephen Williams changes to +19% and James Gough changes to -27%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Stephen Williams becomes +10.5% and for James Gough becomes -15%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2023/2024' so the adjustment for Stephen Williams is +7.9% and for James Gough is -10.6%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that James Gough is limited to -10% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Stephen Williams: 81%, James Gough: 67%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Stephen Williams: 64%, James Gough: 53%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for James Gough: 904, level confidence: 53%. Final level for Stephen Williams: 1,095, level confidence: 64%. Notes
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