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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier C: University of Bristol Chiefs v University of Bath 1 (Thu 26 Oct 2023)Match played between Nathan 'Barnet' Ruskin (home) and Anson Wong (away).Match won by Anson Wong. Result: 1-11,2-11,5-11. Starting level for Nathan 'Barnet' Ruskin: 1,836, level confidence: 66%. Starting level for Anson Wong: 5,371, level confidence: 66%. Anson Wong to win as he is currently playing 193% better than Nathan 'Barnet' Ruskin. Anson Wong won all of the games and 80% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 313% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Anson Wong played 313% better than Nathan 'Barnet' Ruskin in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Anson Wong actually played at a level of 6,378 and Nathan 'Barnet' Ruskin at a level of 1,546. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 19% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, including some additional protection for the better player, the adjustments have been reduced to 5.9% and 10.6% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Anson Wong changes to +5.9% and Nathan 'Barnet' Ruskin changes to -10.5%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Anson Wong becomes +2.6% and for Nathan 'Barnet' Ruskin becomes -5.3%. Given Anson Wong's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 1.6% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2023/2024' so the adjustment for Anson Wong is +1.9% and for Nathan 'Barnet' Ruskin is -3.9%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Anson Wong: 81%, Nathan 'Barnet' Ruskin: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Anson Wong: 68%, Nathan 'Barnet' Ruskin: 69%. A final adjustment of +0.4% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Nathan 'Barnet' Ruskin: 1,777, level confidence: 69%. Final level for Anson Wong: 5,480, level confidence: 68%. Notes
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